As the U.S. Navy plans to retire the legacy mine countermeasures (MCM) systems in the mid-2020s, it has become evident that the Navy has a need to evaluate its MCM posture for the 2040 timeframe and beyond. This report investigates the current and projected mine warfare (MIW) threat and associated enabling technologies to formulate the 2040 MCM scenario. Analysis of the 2040 scenario precipitates several capability gaps that are utilized to formulate two overarching goals for future MCM systems: 1) reduce the MCM timeline and 2) improve the probability of mine detection. To resolve the capability gaps and attain the future MCM goals, a functional architecture is presented and five key technologies that enable significant improvements are examined. To determine how the U.S. Navy will attain the future functional architecture, time-dependent extrapolations of the five enabling technologies determine the expected performance and potential shortcomings that will need to be addressed in order for the systems to mature in stride with the future needs.

Subjects: mine countermeasures; mine warfare; capability gaps; mine countermeasure goals; 2040 timeframe; roadmap; trend lines